The US dollar fell, metals nearly all declined, alumina dropped over 3%, and gold prices remained strong, setting new records! [SMM Daily Review]

SMM March 31 News: Metal Market: At the close of the day, domestic base metals mostly fell, with only SHFE tin rising by 0.41%. Other metals declined, with SHFE zinc and SHFE nickel both dropping over 1%, SHFE zinc fell 1.61%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.25%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. The main contract of alumina fell 3.61%, hitting a low of 2,927 yuan/mt during the session, the lowest since December 2023. Additionally, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.13%, silicon metal fell 1.36%, polysilicon fell 0.44%, and the main contract of European container shipping fell 2.87%. In the overseas market, as of 15:04, only LME tin and LME nickel fell over 1%, with LME tin down 1.38% and LME nickel down 1.5%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore and rebar both fell over 1%, with iron ore down 1.47% and rebar down 1.03%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 3.42%, and coke fell 2.19%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 1.02%, hitting a high of $3,158.2/oz during the session, setting a new historical high since its listing. COMEX silver rose 0.69%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.71%, hitting a high of 732.1 yuan/g during the session, marking its fifth consecutive rise and continuing to set new historical highs. SHFE silver rose 0.5%. Data released last Friday intensified market concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. With the imminent implementation of equivalent tariff policies, market demand for safe-haven assets is strong, and precious metals are climbing sharply. Attention is focused on tariff policy developments and the US March non-farm payroll report, with caution against market volatility risks. Spot gold has risen 9% year-to-date. The price surge has prompted several banks to raise their price forecasts for 2025. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS all raised their gold price targets this month. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold will rise to $3,300 by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of $3,100. Bank of America expects gold to reach $3,063/oz in 2025 and $3,350/oz in 2026, up from previous forecasts of $2,750/oz and $2,625/oz. (Wenhua Comprehensive) As of 15:04 today's market. Click to view SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestically: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on March 31, reviewing the "Regulations on Ecological Environmental Protection Inspection Work" and the "Comprehensive Report on the Fourth Round of Inspections by the 20th Central Committee." General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting pointed out that the central ecological environmental protection inspection is a major initiative by the CPC Central Committee to promote ecological civilization construction. It starts by holding leaders at all levels accountable for their political responsibilities in ecological environmental protection, seriously investigating and dealing with a number of major typical cases of ecological environmental damage, and promoting the resolution of a number of prominent environmental issues that the people strongly reflect on, achieving good results. The meeting emphasized the need to uphold and strengthen the Party's leadership over ecological environmental protection inspection work, continue to leverage the inspection's sharp edge, and further hold all regions and departments accountable for their political responsibilities in building a beautiful China. It is necessary to firmly grasp the "bull's nose" of the responsibility system, strengthen the awareness of the overall situation, maintain a strict tone, dare to confront real issues, continuously discover problems, seriously solve problems, and improve the enforcement of the CPC Central Committee's decisions and deployments on ecological civilization construction. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of the inspection team, enhance standardized management, and strictly enforce discipline. The National Bureau of Statistics: March PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level. In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating a faster pace of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. In March, the composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities. Click to view details. On March 31, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1782 yuan per US dollar. In the US: As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.17%. US February PCE growth was higher than market expectations, while consumer spending rebounded less than expected, raising concerns about stubborn inflation and potential stagflation in the US. US February consumer spending rose 0.4% MoM, below the estimated 0.5%. US February PCE rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations; PCE rose 2.5% YoY. Core PCE rose 0.4% MoM, the largest increase since January 2024; core PCE rose 2.8% YoY. A University of Michigan survey showed that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 5.0% in March, the highest since November 2022. Five-year inflation expectations rose to 4.1%, the highest since February 1993. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that Friday's inflation data confirmed her reduced confidence in the baseline expectation of two rate cuts this year as a "reasonable" forecast. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Data: Today, the Eurozone February ECB 1-year CPI expectation, Eurozone February ECB 3-year CPI expectation, Germany March CPI annual rate final value, and US March Chicago PMI will be released. Additionally, the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting, co-hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the China Association for Science and Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Government, is worth noting, held from March 27 to 31 in Beijing. Crude Oil: As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell, with US oil down 0.09% and Brent oil down 0.05%. Quarterly lines may slightly decline, despite US warnings of potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said: "There are two ways to interpret the headlines and price sell-off. First, the market did not buy into the threat of US tariffs, the market does not believe it. Second, the US tariff threat, if implemented, would be another step towards a trade conflict, which would pressure global economic growth and crude oil demand." OPEC+, consisting of OPEC and its Russia-led allies, is set to begin a monthly oil production increase plan in April. According to last week's report, the group may continue to increase oil production in May. Nomura economist Yuki Takashima said: "Doubts about the feasibility of US tariff policies and the OPEC+ production increase starting in April have kept investors cautious. We expect US crude oil to remain in the $65 to $75 range as the market assesses the impact of US tariffs on oil supply and the global economy, as well as the supply situation of the US and OPEC+." (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review: Aluminum scrap followed aluminum prices lower, with general market transactions. Aluminum price center slightly moved down, while secondary aluminum remained stable. On March 31: Aluminum prices hovered at low levels, with limited firmness in aluminum billet processing fees in three regions. On March 31: MHP Indonesia FOB price rose slightly. On March 31: Nickel salt market saw a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Tungsten market remained deadlocked, with actual transactions pending. Silver price saw a slight correction, with downstream buying the dip and market transactions slightly improved.